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The developed economies have lost their mojo! A New Normal of low growth and high inflation awaits them. Otherwise, why will the ECB (European Central Bank) revise its forecasts lower, and why will 🇨🇳 once the “engine” powering the global economy, suspend publication of youth unemployment data, as it grapples with deflation. The post Brexit United Kingdom 🇬🇧 is in the midst of an “excruciating” cost of living crisis. The United States, marginally better though, is “baffling” all in the “weirdness” of its economy’s behavior.
Why is this happening? After all, we’re talking about the most advanced nations in the world, technologically superior and economically powerful! More so, when they have “shouldered” the Global Economy since the Second World War. And, does this “moment” represent a fundamental “shift” in the balance of power, or just a “break” from the past, soon to be mended by a “new glue” of prosperity, driven by technologies such as Generative Artificial Intelligence? After all, Western preeminence rests on innovation and Invention.
The answer, in part, is the “weakening” of the “forces” underpinning their “dominance” over many decades. Globalization is in retreat. Decades of easy money, that fueled their ascent, are now giving way to an Era of Tightening, as the Ukraine War 🇺🇦 drags on, “chipping away” at the pillars of European growth. China 🇨🇳, built an “Empire of Debt”, that is now deflating, knocking the “wheels” of its economic “miracle”. Moreover, much of the developed world is also in the throes of an “identity crisis” as the West, grapples with a far right “surge”, and populist politicians turn their backs on free trade. Also, ageing societies, China included, debate whether immigration is the answer, while the aforementioned take a strident stand.
In short, “they” need a “replacement” to drive global growth over the next few decades, and this is where India under Modi, much like the “resurgent” Middle East, led by MBS & co come in. You would have noticed these “subtle” and not so covert “promoting” of new powers in the recently concluded G20 summit. A good example is the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor. Apart from being a “one upmanship” with China’s Belt and Road Initiative, this also “announces” how the Western elites view India, as an ally, and a future power, on the rise. This is also the reason why Modi is received “rapturously” wherever he goes. Plus, the Indian Economy is indeed “shining” (we can grumble, for a “few”), and we have Age on our side, given the youthful population.
So, doesn’t all this add up? And, why should we let this “golden opportunity” slip? I personally feel that, no matter who is in power, we, Indians should “grasp” at this newfound importance with all hands, and throw our might at “living up” to the potential we have. After all, Make Hay While The Sun Dawns Over The East, just as it Sunsets the West!!
