Mark My Words! The Global Economy Is Headed Into A Depression, AND, Modi Can Really Be The Vishwaguru “Savior”!!

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As China contracts and, Germany gasps, with the United States acting “weird”, can India step up and “save” the Global Economy from another Great Depression? To the point, can Modi be the Vishwaguru “savior”? Can he lead the Indian Economy to fill the “void” left by the retreating superpowers in a multi-polar world? We might detest Modi or in a milder way, dislike him, but, economics usually trumps everything else and the present “moment” does look like it belongs to Modi.

Take a look at recent economic data. Already in recession, the German economy looks to stagnate further, “dragging” the wider Eurozone down with it. With a “deflating” China, the Global Economy is in for more trouble, maybe catching a cold as the Chinese sneeze. The troika is complete with a very “weird” US, where nothing about its economy makes sense to anyone, inlcluding seasoned economists. When all the “engines” powering global growth sputter, it is time for Superman to revv the machine and make it run again.

This is where Vishwaguru steps in, as the Indian Economy has the right “mix” of unsatiated demand, adequate infrastructure and capabilities for supply, and perhaps the most important aspect of all, a sense of destiny about its future. We can “absorb” the commodities and the oil hitherto “guzzled” by the Chinese, and can also “host” any firm, Western otherwise, looking to move its manufacturing facilities and de-risk their supply chains away from China (the so-called China plus strategy).

On the other hand, we also have a world class Information Technology industry, with a huge pipeline of talent on the bench, as well as outside on the berths, waiting to be let in in case a Global IT firm wants, for either a captive unit, or for outsourcing its requirements. Our Demographic Dividend means we at least have a decade or more to “spend” it, whether in services or in manufacturing. Moreover, we have the infrastructure in place for both the aforementioned sectors, having the hardware of highways, and the software of supply.

I don’t intend this post to be a pitch for Modi. Neither do I want to sound like a Ministry of Information and Broadcasting promotional piece. Rather, my objective is to make a “hard” assessment of where India@76 stands in a “slowing” world. Simply put, the “powers” which powered global growth for the better part of three to five decades are now out of fuel, whereas the Indian Economy has the “stamina” and the will to take over from them. Perhaps this is the intention behind all the Western and Global investors as they “talk up” India. My feeling is that this whole “branding” exercise is more than PR “spin” and, Modi can be the one that the world is waiting for.

Not only that, the Modi sarkar has “played its cards well” on the geopolitical sphere. Notwithstanding the “frosty” Indo-China relationship, we’re friends with both the US and Russia. We’re also on good terms with the European nations, including Ukraine. Plus, we’re close to a “historic” FTA or Free Trade Agreement with a post-Brexit United Kingdom. The “icing on the cake” is the upcoming G20 summit, where we do have the chance to announce our intentions. In a “spent” world, India has the youthful vigor to outrun its rivals sprinting towards the finish line.

Last, the arguments above are neither original nor fresh off the presses, as these points have been made by Modi himself to pitch for a third term for him. My post is more of a stringing together of the various “threads of thought” in the media, and make a dispassionate case for India@76 to seize the moment. If the opposition has to have any chance in 2024, they better come up with a cogent and coherent, not to leave out comprehensive “vision” document which can better Modi’s pitch, or at least, match what our wannabe Vishwaguru says. Amen!


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