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Conventional wisdom suggests we’re in a period of prosperity and growth. However, there is a Contrarian view (mostly by armchair economists like me) that the #globaleconomy might be in for a “lost decade” due to a combination of factors, intersecting with each other, making the economies worldwide enter a period of low #growth, high #inflation, #stagnation, and worse, #stagflation (stagnating growth with high inflation). Let me explain why and how there are 5Cs of this “offbeat” view of mine.
The first C, #China, is something that the mainstream media has been covering with much gusto. Anyone whos been following the news would be aware that the Chinese #economy is now in a downward “spiral” of collapsing real estate firms, in a sector that accounts for 30% of China’s #GDP. Mind you, it IS news when Big Guns like Evergrande go down, with the very real prospect of taking the Chinese economy down with them. All this “action” means China is no longer the “engine” of the global economy, affecting everything from demand for commodities to oil, to being the “factory of the world”. A slowing and worse, ageing China means the global economy too would suffer a massive #downturn.
The next C here are the #CentralBanks, tasked with maintaining price stability in their respective countries. When inflation persists in being high, the #FederalReserve and other Central Banks have no option but to raise #rates, at a time of low growth, thereby exacerbating the Stagflationary tendencies. Moreover, the longer the #Ukrainianwar drags on, the higher the odds of inflation staying high, placing the Central Bankers in a classic “Catch 22”, where they’re Damned if they Hike, and equally Damned if they Don’t.
The third C here is the Elephant in the Room, #ClimateChange. We can no longer argue about the effects of human caused #ClimateCrisis, as the evidence is staring at us from above and below our terrain, as extreme weather events multiply, and Biblical floods and droughts become commonplace. Indeed, I do believe that we are past “the point of no return” as far as #Climate is concerned and the human, monetary, economic, social, and environmental costs converge in a Perfect Storm (pun intended).
The fourth C, #Conflict, is all too known for further elaboration. The Ukrainian war along with mini wars in #Africa and the #MiddleEast, coupled with rising instability in #Asia, portend a “dark future” for humanity, along with attendant #migration and displacement problems. Already the Climate Crisis is spurring an influx of migrants to the #West. Add Conflict driven flows of desperate people to the mix, and we have a HUGE problem here.
The last C, #Computing, might come as a surprise. #Technology by nature is #productivity enhancing and so, any #joblosses are offset by gains elsewhere. However, #Generative #ArtificialIntelligence is an entirely new “game” altogether. We’re essentially “flying blind” with AI.
