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It would be a “mistake” to think that #india would “escape” from the #global #banking #turmoil. More so, when the #indianeconomy is still “recovering” from the #covid induced “shock”.
Indeed, I would “bet” on the #indian #financial #system not “surviving” this present #crisis, given the many #economic and #financial “drags” that are #structural to the #indianeconomy.
For one, #indian #banks have “tons” of #baddebt on their #books, along with #future #npas that would certainly “materialize” as the #global #turmoil reaches our shores.
Already the #markets are “tanking” with both the #sensex and the #nifty down for almost a #week now. Added to this is the prospect of further #ratehikes by the #federalreserve and our very own #rbi.
As #centralbanks are in a “bind” over whether to #hike or take a #hiatus, the likely #impact of this #uncertainty would result in more #volatility and a “weird” #newnormal would set in.
On the other hand, the #modigovernment‘s “ambitious” #infrastructure #spending plans face a “double whammy” due to the #adani #saga and the “balloning” #fiscal #deficit, necessitating higher borrowing, thereby piling on “pressure” on the #rupee.
If this weren’t enough, the widening #currentaccount #deficit and the falling #exports would raise the stakes for the #indian #growth #story. Indeed, I foresee a #currency #crisis and a #taper #tantrum hitting at the same time.
Last, but, not the least, the prevailing “clouds” over the #monsoon can be a “touch and go” affair for our #economy, dependent on the “rain gods”. To cap it all, #manufacturing is “shrinking”, and #indianbusiness “cup of woes” are “brimmeth”.
