Mark my words, 2023 will be the year when it all goes down, or as they say in German, Kaput, meaning broken or no longer effective. Kaput can also mean “finished” or “the end”! I chose a German word for my #2023predictions as, like during the two world wars, Germany would be “pivotal” to the coming year’s events. For instance, take the #ukrainewar. With #putin likely to go for “broke,” having already “weaponized” gas and food, and threatening a “winter from hell” on Europe, what stops him from “nuking” #ukraine, or for that matter, any NATO nation, triggering the #thirdworldwar, by unleashing a “nuclear winter”? This is where #germany would be key to 2023 as so far, it has been the “one” #european #nation that has been both struck by #russian #gas stoppages and yet, continues to “engage” with the #russians.
If #putin went all out in 2023, #xi wouldn’t be left behind. Emboldened by his “immortality” as he embarks on his #thirdterm, #xijinping has already begun the innings first with “zero covid” lockdowns, next with sabre rattling over #taiwan, along with residuary “problems” from the collapse of the #chinese #realestate #sector. Adding to this is the #unitedstates and its “confrontationist” approach with the recently announced sanctions aimed at “crippling” #China’s #semiconductor #industry. Some experts say that more than anything else, this “move” by the #bidenadministration is the first shot towards a new #tradewar, and so, 2023 can well be the year messers #putin and #xi decide that “enough is enough” and go “full” Kaput on the #west.
Where does #india stand amidst all this “turmoil”? Neutral?? Leaning towards #russia? Or, playing it “smart”? I think that the #modigovernment has been quite effective with the last option as we now find ourselves in a geopolitical “sweet spot” and should “leverage” the newfound “love” from the #west and the #east to secure #economic gains. Indeed, if not anything, #indiaat75 would surely achieve its “dreams” of a #5trillioneconomy, sooner than later, if we play it well. However, there is a Big If here, #indians would be “forced” to take sides, especially if the #ukrainerussiawar turns critical and the Kaput scenario comes into play. In that case, 2023 can well “realign” the #world #geopolitically and #economically, and #modi might emerge a “kingmaker” of sorts.
I think 2023 will be the “decisive” year for all nations and the #indianeconomy in particular, as we cannot “kick the can” down the road anymore. For all its “aspirations,” #indiaat75 has a long way to go before it becomes an #economic powerhouse. Of course, we have discarded the “begging bowl” of yore, and our IT industry is world-class. However, the #economy remains largely a “one pony trick,” and with the job-creating “informal economy” in the doldrums, #india’s much-vaunted #demographicdividend is becoming a #disaster. stoking #unrest and #disorder. Indeed, 2023 can well be the Kaput moment for us as the “genocidal” impulses arising from unresolved “existential” crises threaten to tear the country apart. As the #pandemic showed, #india is grossly unprepared for #emergencies.
Do I sound dire? Gloomy? Well! I am not alone here, as there are many #economists like #nouriel #roubini, dubbed Dr Doom, who in their #2023predictions has warned of the “mother of all debt crises” hitting the #globaleconomy. More so, as I wrote earlier, the “great unravelling” has set the world on a “slow motion” trainwreck with the #economies worldwide having “nowhere to run.” We have seen what happened with Srilanka, and I predict that 2023 will be Kaput for many #emerging and #developing #markets. Of course, the #stockmarkets would continue to rise in this “great derangement”, especially as we are now in a “race to the bottom” scenario where only the “top 1 per cent” flourish and the rest flounder. Indeed, as the #pandemic and #putin combine in a “double whammy,” and with #globalization in decline, it is anybody’s “guess” as to where 2023 will take us.
As 2022 comes to an end, The preceding discussion was about the many “stressors” which are leading us to a Kaput scenario and, above all, the feeling of “weirdness” that pervades our lives, testing our “resilience” and making #predictions that much more difficult. So, buckle up, dear readers, for 2023 would literally and figuratively be “one hell of a year” where uncertainty is the only certainty, and the “unexpected” is expected every day lest we forget! The #coronavirus hasn’t been exorcised yet, and our over-dependence on #technology can be our undoing. Happy New Year!